All issues | May 13th, 2026 Edition
A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East dominated the week, oscillating between diplomatic brinksmanship and fresh exchanges of fire, as the AEX hit record highs on optimism that proved premature. Meanwhile, a political earthquake in the United Kingdom and a historic power transfer in Hungary reshaped Europe's political landscape, while the Dutch government faced twin domestic crises over asylum shelter violence and social security cuts.
The defining narrative of the week was the surreal spectacle of a ceasefire that both sides insisted was still in effect even as they traded fire. The US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, with US forces disabling two Iranian oil tankers and intercepting drone attacks, while Trump simultaneously declared that the ceasefire "still holds." By mid-week, Trump had rejected Iran's counterproposal, calling it "totally unacceptable" and warning the truce was on "massive life support," while Iran's negotiator countered that Washington must accept Tehran's plan or risk collapse.
The economic consequences were unambiguous. Saudi Aramco posted a 25% profit surge to over €28 billion in Q1, while Shell gained nearly €1 billion in extra profit from surging oil prices. US inflation jumped to 3.8% — its highest in nearly three years — driven by a 28% year-on-year gasoline price increase. The CEO of Saudi Aramco warned that 100 million barrels of oil are being lost from global markets every week the Strait remains closed.
What emerges from reading across sources is a portrait of strategic paralysis. Trump appears caught between his campaign promise to end wars and the escalatory logic of the conflict he inherited. Iran, meanwhile, faces economic asphyxiation — basic goods prices in Tehran now rise within single days — but retains 30 of 33 missile bases along the Strait. Netanyahu explicitly stated the war is "not over" until Iran's enriched uranium is gone, a position that leaves little room for the diplomatic off-ramp both sides claim to seek.
The UK local elections produced a political shock that continued reverberating all week. Reform UK won over 1,000 seats, becoming the largest party by seat count, while Plaid Cymru ended Labour's century-long winning streak in Wales and the SNP secured a historic fifth consecutive victory in Scotland. By week's end, over 80 Labour MPs had publicly called for Starmer's removal — enough to trigger a leadership challenge.
Starmer's refusal to resign, despite a cabinet split and four ministerial resignations, suggests a leader betting that time and the absence of an obvious successor will see him through. One reading of this is that Labour's electoral coalition is fundamentally fractured: Reform UK is absorbing working-class voters on cultural and immigration issues, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens peel off progressive voters. The cabinet's dysfunction was laid bare when a minister publicly called on Starmer to set out a departure timetable.
The domestic crisis has international dimensions. Starmer's government was already navigating the fallout from the Iran war — the US is reportedly pressing China's Xi Jinping to help end the conflict during the Trump-Xi summit, and British Steel nationalization announcements competed for headlines with the leadership drama.
The week saw the formal end of Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule as Péter Magyar was sworn in as Hungary's prime minister, his Tisza party holding a two-thirds parliamentary majority. Within minutes of taking office, Magyar called for the president's resignation — the clearest sign yet that his promise of "regime change" was not rhetorical.
Magyar's ascent represents something unusual in contemporary European politics: a pro-European conservative winning on an anti-corruption platform. His first speech emphasized service over rule — "I will not rule, but serve" — a deliberate contrast to Orbán's illiberal model. The transition has already triggered a hunt for Orbán's protégés embedded in state institutions.
This matters beyond Hungary. Orbán was the EU's most disruptive internal actor, blocking Ukraine aid and sanctions. Magyar's victory removes a major obstacle to EU decision-making, though it remains to be seen whether his coalition can hold together as he attempts to dismantle Orbán's "deep state" apparatus.
Trump's announcement of a three-day ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, starting May 9, initially appeared as a rare diplomatic win. Both Putin and Zelensky agreed, and a prisoner swap was arranged. But the ceasefire crumbled before it fully took effect. Russia launched over 200 drones at Kyiv hours after the truce expired, and the Kremlin confirmed combat operations had resumed. Putin's scaled-down Victory Day parade — notably smaller than usual — underscored Russia's weakened position rather than projecting strength.
A hantavirus outbreak aboard the Dutch cruise ship Hondius drew international attention after a 65-year-old German woman died. By week's end, six cases were confirmed, and the ship arrived in the Canary Islands under tightly controlled evacuation protocols. The Andes variant of the virus, typically found in South America, raised questions about transmission patterns that remain unresolved.
Trump-Xi summit outcomes: The US president's visit to Beijing, the first in nearly a decade, carries dual weight — trade tariffs and Iran mediation. Watch whether China offers meaningful pressure on Tehran, and at what cost in trade concessions.
Starmer's survival timeline: With over 80 Labour MPs demanding his departure and a formal leadership challenge possible next week, the question isn't whether Starmer will face a vote but when — and whether the party can avoid a protracted civil war.
Hormuz escalation trajectory: Iran retains operational capacity along the Strait, Trump has rejected their counterproposal, and Netanyahu insists on total uranium removal. The gap between stated positions and the degraded state of diplomacy suggests a return to active conflict is a live possibility.