Ochtend Flits

All issues  |  May 20th, 2026 Edition

Week of May 13–20, 2026

The Week

A week of high-stakes summitry and escalating violence has left the international order feeling more brittle. The Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing produced grand ceremony and vague promises, while Russia's devastating aerial campaign against Kyiv, a brewing US-Iran confrontation, and a cascade of leadership crises in the UK and Israel set a distinctly anxious tone for internationals watching from the Netherlands.

Major Threads

The Beijing Summit: Pomp, Posturing, and a Pinch of Progress

The dominant event of the week was US President Donald Trump's state visit to China, his first since 2017. The meeting was heavy on pageantry—Xi Jinping welcomed Trump with a troop parade and children waving flags, while the two leaders held over two hours of talks in Zhongnanhai. Substantively, however, the results were a mixed bag.

Trump claimed he had reached "fantastic trade deals" on energy, aircraft, and soybeans, and both sides announced a reduction in tariffs on certain products. He also stated that Xi Jinping offered to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open and pledged not to arm Iran—a significant diplomatic concession given the ongoing US-Israeli war against Tehran. On the other hand, Xi issued a pointed warning: mishandling Taiwan could lead to "collisions and even conflicts." Trump later claimed he "made no commitment" on defending Taiwan, while Beijing confirmed Xi accepted an invitation to visit the US this autumn.

One reading of this week is that China played a careful game: warmly receiving Trump, extracting economic concessions that could boost American soybean farmers and ease domestic price pressures, but refusing to break its alliance with Iran. The absence of a concrete breakthrough on Taiwan or a firm Chinese commitment on Iran suggests Beijing is keeping its options open—especially with Putin arriving in Beijing just days after Trump departed.

Russia's War: Maximum Pressure on Kyiv, Signaling to the West

Russia launched its largest-ever drone and missile attacks on Ukraine this week, with over 1,560 drones reported across two days. The death toll in Kyiv alone rose to at least 24, including three children, as an apartment building was destroyed. The attacks came shortly after Putin hinted that the war could end soon, and appeared timed to coincide with Trump's visit to China—a deliberate signal, in Zelensky's telling.

But the week also saw Ukraine striking back with one of its heaviest drone attacks on Russian territory, hitting an oil refinery and pumping sites near Moscow. Zelensky called the strikes a "justified response." The pattern points to a war that is intensifying in both range and brutality, with civilian casualties in Ukraine hitting a ten-month high.

A significant development was Ukraine's performance in a NATO exercise on Gotland, where Ukrainian troops reportedly outperformed NATO units, leading to questions about "who needs whom" in the alliance. Meanwhile, the EU accelerated its rearmament plans with the "Readiness 2030" initiative, and 36 countries approved the creation of a special tribunal to prosecute Russia for aggression. This suggests Western allies are preparing for a long conflict, even as the human toll mounts.

The Middle East: Ceasefires Fray and New Fronts Open

The week revealed a region in a precarious state of semi-war. Israel confirmed it had killed Hamas military chief Izz al-Din Haddad in Gaza, a move Netanyahu hailed as a strategic success but one that raises the likelihood of renewed fighting. In Lebanon, despite a ceasefire extension, Israel continued strikes, killing 12 people in one day. Israel now controls 60% of Gaza, according to Netanyahu.

The most alarming escalation came near the end of the week: a drone strike sparked a fire near the UAE's only nuclear power plant in Barakah. No casualties or radiation leaks were reported, but the attack—suspected to be Iranian-linked—fueled fears of a widening conflict. Trump warned Iran that "there won't be anything left of them" without a peace deal, but also delayed planned strikes at the request of Gulf leaders. Tehran, meanwhile, announced a new body to manage the Strait of Hormuz, effectively formalizing its blockade.

The synthesis is stark: the US-Israeli war against Iran has paused but not ended, with preparations reportedly underway for renewed strikes as early as next week. The Gulf states, caught between the US and Iran, are being drawn into the conflict, while the nuclear dimension has now been introduced as a target.

Political Crises: Starmer, Netanyahu, and the Fragility of Power

Two long-serving leaders faced existential threats this week. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer saw Health Secretary Wes Streeting resign and launch a leadership challenge, with nearly 90 Labour MPs calling for his removal. Andy Burnham cleared a by-election path that could set up a challenge, and analysts described Starmer as a "lame duck." The crisis was compounded by massive rival protests in London that required 4,000 police officers.

In Israel, Netanyahu appeared increasingly isolated. Haaretz reported he "no longer believes he can win the election," and his coalition is pushing through a judicial overhaul and pro-settler bills ahead of expected elections. The ICC prosecutor sought arrest warrants for far-right ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. Meanwhile, Israel has become the world's most unpopular country in public opinion surveys, overtaking North Korea.

For internationals, these leadership crises matter because they affect the stability of two key Western allies at a time of war in Europe and the Middle East. The UK's ability to project influence is hamstrung by domestic chaos, while Israel's internal divisions are accelerating its international isolation.

Developing Stories

The Stadskanaal Child Abuse Case

This story broke mid-week when Dutch prosecutors announced they were investigating two mothers from Stadskanaal for systematically abusing a six-year-old girl and a seven-year-old boy—locking them in a cellar, forcing the girl to eat her own vomit, and filming the abuse. Local unrest followed, with the mayor calling for calm. Over the week, the story deepened: experts described a pattern of "cold aggression," and by Monday, the minister responsible for youth care announced a meeting with agencies to improve child protection. This is a story that began as a criminal investigation and is rapidly becoming a national policy debate on the failure of child welfare systems.

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